What happens when you analyze your favorite college football team like the CIA?

What happens when you analyze college football like the CIA? A couple weekends ago, the Illinois football team lost to Duke at home, 31–27. My Hinsley model immediately became much less optimistic about Illinois making the College Football Playoff. But it became more optimistic about the offensive line and our new quarterback. That sounds contradictory, but it's exactly what I wanted to happen. Fo...