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AI didn't cause the tech jobs bust, but it explains why there's no recovery
opinion
41 min read
US tech employment has declined even as the wider economy added jobs, with information-sector payrolls falling to 2.739 million in September 2026, 12% below their November 2022 peak. Indeed’s US software-development postings peaked in February 2022, before ChatGPT’s November launch, and had already fallen 36% by then. The data attributes the initial contraction to higher interest rates and the unwinding of pandemic-era hiring. The recovery in hiring has favored senior workers and AI-specific roles rather than restoring broad tech employment. US software-development postings rose 16% from January 2025 to October 2026 while information-sector employment fell 5%. CompTIA counted 349,821 US tech postings requiring AI skills in September 2026, or 56% of active tech postings; Indeed found senior positions accounted for 71% of the rebound in software-development postings from May 2025 to May 2026. AI-skilled roles carried an estimated 56% wage premium. Job losses have increasingly occurred through attrition rather than mass layoffs. The US layoffs rate was 1.0% in August 2026, while the hires rate was 3.3%. Similar shifts toward AI and experienced hires appear in India and China. Youth unemployment was 14.5% for US workers aged 16–19, 19.0% for urban Indians aged 15–29, and 18.9% for urban Chinese workers aged 16–24 excluding students.