The Coached Weekly essay argues that employees can use nonpublic knowledge about their workplace to make career decisions, comparing that advantage to insider trading without trading securities. It cites Nokia after the iPhone’s 2007 launch: engineers reportedly recognized that Nokia’s products lagged behind, while outsiders still viewed the company as an industry leader. Some employees retrained or moved to Apple and Google before Nokia’s phone business was gone by 2013, while others waited until the decline was widely visible. The essay identifies internal signals such as repeatedly rewritten roadmaps, departures of key engineers, stalled migrations, customer enthusiasm, and the speed at which failing projects are stopped. It says employees can also identify promising internal initiatives before they become official priorities and more competitive destinations. It argues that financial results and formal confirmation often lag operational problems, citing research that found Nokia middle managers were reluctant to communicate bad news upward because executives were perceived as shooting messengers. AI adoption is presented as a particularly important current signal. The essay recommends assessing whether leaders personally use AI tools and how AI is affecting specific tasks in an employee’s role. It advises small career moves rather than dramatic exits, including building relevant skills, taking recruiter calls, networking with successful teams, and targeting growing parts of an industry during a job search.

U.S. consumer prices have remained high after pandemic-era supply shocks eased, while the source argues that large companies have used constrained supply and pricing power to preserve wider profit margins. It cites a rise in average markups over cost from 56% in 2020 to 72% in 2021, corporate profits of $4.42 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, and S&P 500 net profit margins of 16.9% in the second quarter of 2026. The source also cites $1.28 trillion in credit-card debt in the fourth quarter of 2025 and says 111 million Americans could not pay their balances in full each month. The source describes “rockets and feathers,” or asymmetric price transmission, in which prices rise quickly with costs but decline slowly when costs fall. It links the pattern to consumer categories including groceries, rent, gasoline, automobiles, insurance and pharmaceuticals, while also citing prior price-fixing cases across several industries. A June 2026 class action alleged that Samsung, SK hynix and Micron coordinated DRAM supply reductions; the allegations remain unproven. After the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, the source says about $166 billion in company refunds became available and that companies did not generally lower consumer prices. It calls for consumers to delay discretionary purchases, compare prices and organize boycotts, citing Croatia’s 2025 retail boycott as an example of pressure that preceded price cuts and expanded price caps.

Situational Awareness faced challenges due to downward market pressures, yet it also gained from these forces during a period of significant asset price increases over the past 18 months. Current market volatility is influencing the perception and performance of Situational Awareness.

The bond market is showing skepticism towards Fed Chair Warsh's economic outlook and policy proposals. Investors are not responding positively to his messaging, indicating a disconnect between the Fed's expectations and market sentiment.

AI superforecasters have emerged as significant players in prediction markets, with one startup reportedly turning $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months. The annual prediction market conference showcased the transition of prediction markets into a multi-billion dollar industry, attracting notable figures such as the President’s son as an advisor.

John Pederson turned $2,000 into $41,000 by betting on daily snowfall totals and sports using Kalshi, a prediction market. He developed his betting strategy with the assistance of AI while recovering from a car crash.

In the last 30 years, the number of public companies has been cut in half. The situation has gotten so bad that the Wilshire 5000 index, founded in 1974 to track the broadest portfolio of all US publicly traded stocks, now listsonly about 3700 stocks! In my latest piece in

Cryptocurrencies are often promoted as the future of money, but concerns about their volatility, usability, and reliability remain. The notion of "getting left behind" in adopting cryptocurrencies contrasts with the belief that their benefits will persist regardless of early adoption.