coastal-hazards climate-change environmental-science data-integration

Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments

nature.com

March 4, 2026

55 min read

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Summary

More than 99% of evaluated coastal hazard impact assessments inadequately handled sea-level and land elevation data. This mismanagement leads to incorrect judgments of sea level relative to the coast, affecting the reliability of assessments related to sea-level rise and hazards.

Key Takeaways

More than 99% of evaluated coastal hazard assessments inadequately handle sea-level and land elevation data, leading to misjudgments of sea level relative to coastal elevation.
Measured coastal sea levels are, on average, 0.27 m to 0.24 m higher than those assumed in most hazard assessments based on geoid models.
In regions of the Global South, measured mean sea levels can exceed global geoids by more than 1 m, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
A hypothetical 1 m rise in relative sea level could result in 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people falling below sea level, increasing estimates to 77–132 million affected individuals.

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The ongoing global turmoil, including wars and AI development, has overshadowed the urgent issue of climate change, which is a critical concern for our future.
The alarming state of warming oceans and sea ice levels highlights a terrifying reality that could have severe implications for coastal communities and ecosystems.
Population projections have consistently missed the mark, raising questions about their impact on climate change and resource consumption, which remains under-researched.