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We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

morningstar.com

June 9, 2026

7 min read

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60/100

Summary

Morningstar values SpaceX at $63 per share, indicating a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO's offering price. Optimistic forecasts suggest that only the most favorable scenarios approach the IPO valuation.

Key Takeaways

Morningstar values SpaceX at $63 per share, which is a 53% discount to the expected IPO offering price.
The most optimistic scenario for SpaceX, which assumes successful reusability of the Starship and commercialization of space data centers, values the company at $1.97 trillion or $154 per share, but has only a 7% probability of occurring.
SpaceX's valuation includes $6.50 per share from the IPO proceeds, $1.80 from cash and investments, and $40 from its core space and connectivity businesses.
Morningstar assigns a "Very High Uncertainty Rating" to SpaceX, indicating significant risk and variability in its financial forecasts.

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Community Sentiment

Mixed

Positives

The potential for rapidly reusable Starship rockets could revolutionize space logistics, enabling multiple launches per week and significantly reducing costs for future missions.
If SpaceX successfully commercializes data centers in space, it could open new frontiers for data processing and storage, potentially enhancing AI capabilities in a secure environment.

Concerns

The governance structure, with Musk holding over 85% voting power, raises serious concerns about accountability and the long-term interests of public shareholders.
The concept of orbital data centers seems impractical without major technological breakthroughs, as the physics involved presents significant challenges that may not be surmountable.