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A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

A $1.75 Trillion IPO Would Be Overpaying 30% for SpaceX

futuresearch.ai

April 2, 2026

3 min read

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50/100

Summary

SpaceX filed confidentially for an IPO on April 1, 2026, aiming for a valuation of $1.75 trillion with a potential listing in June. If successful, this would mark the largest IPO in history.

Key Takeaways

SpaceX filed confidentially for an IPO on April 1, 2026, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO in history if completed.
The forecasted sum-of-the-parts equity value of SpaceX is approximately $1,250 billion, 29% below the $1.75 trillion IPO target.
Starlink accounts for $602 billion, or 48% of the segment value, highlighting its critical role in SpaceX's overall valuation.
The valuation of xAI at $258 billion is questioned due to its significant quarterly losses and reliance on a recent merger anchor for valuation.

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Community Sentiment

Mixed

Positives

Starship's recent successful tests demonstrate impressive precision, challenging previous doubts about its viability and suggesting a strong future for SpaceX's technology.
The potential for Starship to enable human interplanetary travel positions it uniquely in the market, highlighting its significant long-term value.

Concerns

The current valuation of xAI raises concerns, as it appears unsustainable given its high burn rate compared to its revenue, indicating potential overvaluation.
Investors may face significant risks due to NASDAQ's new rules favoring rapid price discovery, which could disadvantage average investors and lead to wealth transfer.