Financial technology
Source reports covering Financial technology. Stories will appear when analysis and community reactions are ready.
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Source reports
The insider trading you're allowed to do
opinion
6 min read
The Coached Weekly essay argues that employees can use nonpublic knowledge about their workplace to make career decisions, comparing that advantage to insider trading without trading securities. It cites Nokia after the iPhone’s 2007 launch: engineers reportedly recognized that Nokia’s products lagged behind, while outsiders still viewed the company as an industry leader. Some employees retrained or moved to Apple and Google before Nokia’s phone business was gone by 2013, while others waited until the decline was widely visible. The essay identifies internal signals such as repeatedly rewritten roadmaps, departures of key engineers, stalled migrations, customer enthusiasm, and the speed at which failing projects are stopped. It says employees can also identify promising internal initiatives before they become official priorities and more competitive destinations. It argues that financial results and formal confirmation often lag operational problems, citing research that found Nokia middle managers were reluctant to communicate bad news upward because executives were perceived as shooting messengers. AI adoption is presented as a particularly important current signal. The essay recommends assessing whether leaders personally use AI tools and how AI is affecting specific tasks in an employee’s role. It advises small career moves rather than dramatic exits, including building relevant skills, taking recruiter calls, networking with successful teams, and targeting growing parts of an industry during a job search.
When the shortage is the strategy
opinion
14 min read
U.S. consumer prices have remained high after pandemic-era supply shocks eased, while the source argues that large companies have used constrained supply and pricing power to preserve wider profit margins. It cites a rise in average markups over cost from 56% in 2020 to 72% in 2021, corporate profits of $4.42 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, and S&P 500 net profit margins of 16.9% in the second quarter of 2026. The source also cites $1.28 trillion in credit-card debt in the fourth quarter of 2025 and says 111 million Americans could not pay their balances in full each month. The source describes “rockets and feathers,” or asymmetric price transmission, in which prices rise quickly with costs but decline slowly when costs fall. It links the pattern to consumer categories including groceries, rent, gasoline, automobiles, insurance and pharmaceuticals, while also citing prior price-fixing cases across several industries. A June 2026 class action alleged that Samsung, SK hynix and Micron coordinated DRAM supply reductions; the allegations remain unproven. After the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, the source says about $166 billion in company refunds became available and that companies did not generally lower consumer prices. It calls for consumers to delay discretionary purchases, compare prices and organize boycotts, citing Croatia’s 2025 retail boycott as an example of pressure that preceded price cuts and expanded price caps.
Kagi added a setting for removing paywalled links from search results
tool
3 min read
Kagi updated its Search and Assistant products on August 21, 2026, adding a redesigned Stocks widget, expanded Assistant search tools, and new retention controls for temporary chats. The Stocks widget now supports exchange-traded funds alongside individual stocks, includes price charts, and animates transitions between selected time windows. Kagi says the widget will appear more often in relevant searches. Search users can also enable a setting that automatically removes paywalled links from results. Kagi Assistant now renders links, Markdown, and LaTeX in user messages. Users can search across all conversation threads, sort results by recency or alphabetically, and use “/” to begin filtering by folder. Temporary Assistant threads can be retained for 24 hours, seven days, or 30 days. The update also includes bulk export of Assistant chats, controls for prompt submission behavior, expandable thinking sections, code-fence syntax highlighting, and protections intended to prevent search-engine indexing of shared Assistant threads. Additional fixes cover Search lenses, shortcuts, Quick Answer source handling, URL behavior, mobile navigation, web-search toggle persistence, speech-to-text pauses on Android, iOS login, and Kagi Translate extension and preset issues.
Jane Street suffers $15B hit after meltdown at Situational Awareness
news
1 min read
Jane Street experienced a $15 billion loss due to a significant failure in its Situational Awareness system. This incident has raised concerns about the firm's risk management and operational stability.
Gloomberb
tool
1 min read
Gloomberb is an open-source stock portfolio manager and trading terminal designed for users to track and manage their investments. It offers features such as real-time market data, portfolio analytics, and trading capabilities.
Situational Awareness and the Impending Stock Market Volatility
opinion
7 min read
Situational Awareness faced challenges due to downward market pressures, yet it also gained from these forces during a period of significant asset price increases over the past 18 months. Current market volatility is influencing the perception and performance of Situational Awareness.
The bond market isn’t buying what Fed Chair Warsh is selling
opinion
1 min read
The bond market is showing skepticism towards Fed Chair Warsh's economic outlook and policy proposals. Investors are not responding positively to his messaging, indicating a disconnect between the Fed's expectations and market sentiment.
Citadel Buys Situational Awareness's Stock Portfolio After Big Losses in AI
news
1 min read
Citadel acquired the majority of Situational Awareness's stock portfolio following significant losses experienced by the AI-focused hedge fund. Situational Awareness, founded by former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner, had rapidly grown to manage over $20 billion in assets within two years.
A $500 RL fine-tune of a 9B open model beat frontier models on catalog review
research
2 min read
An open-source model combined with proprietary task data and reinforcement learning has been implemented in various real-world scenarios. Bridgewater Associates utilizes AI to analyze a continuous influx of documents to determine their relevance to investment strategies.
Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt [pdf]
research
1 min read
The document examines the financial mechanisms supporting the AI industry, focusing on cash flows and debt financing. It discusses how these financial strategies impact the growth and sustainability of AI companies.
The AI Superforecasters Are Here
opinion
26 min read
AI superforecasters have emerged as significant players in prediction markets, with one startup reportedly turning $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months. The annual prediction market conference showcased the transition of prediction markets into a multi-billion dollar industry, attracting notable figures such as the President’s son as an advisor.
Tech sell-off widens as South Korea index plunges
news
1 min read
Wall Street is poised for gains following a recent downturn attributed to AI market fluctuations. Investor sentiment is shifting as recovery signs emerge in major indices.
Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
opinion
1 min read
John Pederson turned $2,000 into $41,000 by betting on daily snowfall totals and sports using Kalshi, a prediction market. He developed his betting strategy with the assistance of AI while recovering from a car crash.
In the last 30 years, the number of public companies has been cut in half
opinion
1 min read
In the last 30 years, the number of public companies has been cut in half. The situation has gotten so bad that the Wilshire 5000 index, founded in 1974 to track the broadest portfolio of all US publicly traded stocks, now listsonly about 3700 stocks! In my latest piece in
Oil at $150 will trigger global recession, says boss of financial BlackRock
news
5 min read
If oil prices reach $150 a barrel, it would trigger a global recession, according to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. He stated that ongoing threats from Iran and sustained high oil prices would have significant implications for the world economy.
I'm OK being left behind, thanks
opinion
2 min read
Cryptocurrencies are often promoted as the future of money, but concerns about their volatility, usability, and reliability remain. The notion of "getting left behind" in adopting cryptocurrencies contrasts with the belief that their benefits will persist regardless of early adoption.
Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks
news
1 min read
Bitcoin fell below $61,000, marking a decline that has erased all gains since Donald Trump's election. The cryptocurrency dropped as much as 4.8% to $60,033, reaching its lowest value since October 2024 amid increased market turbulence and unwinding of leveraged bets.
Why This Computer Scientist Says All Cryptocurrency Should "Die in a Fire" (2022)
36 min read
UC-Berkeley’s Nicholas Weaver argues that cryptocurrency is fundamentally flawed and predicts it will lead to disaster. Recent market events have illustrated significant risks, as the cryptocurrency sector experienced a substantial sell-off.