The beginning of scarcity in AI
tomtunguz.com
April 16, 2026
1 min read
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57/100
Summary
Technology companies are facing supply chain limits for the first time since the 2000s, leading to a 48% increase in GPU rental prices for Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, now at $4.08 per hour. CoreWeave has raised prices by 20% and extended minimum contracts from one year to three, while OpenAI's CFO, Sarah Friar, indicated that compute shortages are forcing difficult decisions on project priorities.
Key Takeaways
- GPU rental prices for Nvidia’s Blackwell chips increased by 48% to $4.08 per hour within two months.
- OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that the company is making tough decisions on projects due to insufficient compute resources.
- Access to advanced AI models is becoming restricted, with Anthropic limiting its newest model to approximately forty organizations.
- The current AI landscape is characterized by rising costs, slower access to models, and a shift towards smaller models and on-premise deployments.
Community Sentiment
Positives
- The current constraints in AI may drive innovation in harness design and small models, leading to more efficient and cost-effective solutions.
- The rapid improvement of AI models means that mid-level models can now perform tasks that once required frontier models, potentially lowering costs for many applications.
- The ongoing economic pressures could lead to a resurgence in local model deployment, which may democratize AI access and reduce reliance on expensive cloud services.
Concerns
- Companies that are heavily reliant on AI may face significant price increases, which could impact their competitiveness and profitability in a saturated market.
- The high valuations of AI companies like OpenAI may not be sustainable given their cash burn rates, raising concerns about the long-term viability of their business models.
- The assumption of finite hardware production capacity suggests that the current scarcity in AI resources could hinder growth and innovation in the short term.
